Risk
Market Crash Simulator
Sequence-of-returns stress test on a drawdown plan.
Last updated 14 August 2026 · Free · No sign-up · Nothing you type leaves your browser
Your withdrawal plan
The shock
Applied as that single year's return, then the plan returns to the normal assumption.
Same average return, different order
All three lines below use the identical 9.0% normal return and the identical -30% crash. The only thing that changes is which year the crash lands in. That alone is enough to change the outcome dramatically — this is sequence-of-returns risk.
No crash
Lasts 30y+
Crash in year 2
24 yr 9 mo
Same crash, year 28
Lasts 30y+
Corpus balance under each scenario
Ending corpus, no crash
₹3.84 Cr
Ending corpus, early crash
₹0
₹3.84 Cr less than the no-crash outcome, purely from timing.
Why order matters this much
A withdrawal plan sells units to fund every payment. If a crash hits early, you are forced to sell more units at depressed prices to raise the same rupee amount — permanently reducing the base that would otherwise have shared in the eventual recovery. A crash of identical size late in the plan does far less damage, because fewer years of withdrawals are left to compound the loss. Two retirements with the exact same average return over the full period can end up worlds apart for this reason alone — see the SWP calculator to test your own withdrawal plan under a single steady return.
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The risk a flat-return calculator can't show you
Every other calculator on this site applies one steady return, evenly, across every month — a necessary simplification, but one that hides the single largest risk in retirement drawdown. This tool exists specifically to make that risk visible: the same average return, with the same size crash, produces very different outcomes purely depending on when the crash lands.
Why early is worse
A withdrawal plan sells units to fund every payment. A crash early in retirement forces more units to be sold at depressed prices to raise the same rupee amount, permanently shrinking the base that would otherwise have shared in the eventual recovery. The same crash arriving late does far less damage, because there are fewer remaining withdrawal years for that damage to compound. Test your own plan directly on the SWP calculator.
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Frequently asked questions
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
The risk that the order in which returns arrive, not just their average, determines whether a withdrawal plan survives. A crash early in retirement forces you to sell more units at depressed prices to fund the same withdrawals, permanently reducing the base available to recover — the same crash later does far less damage, because fewer withdrawal years are left to compound the loss.
Why do all three lines use the same average return?
That is the entire point of the comparison. Every line uses an identical normal return and an identical crash size — only the timing of the crash changes. If the outcomes were the same regardless of timing, sequence risk wouldn't be a real phenomenon. They are not the same, which is exactly what this tool is built to show.
Is this a prediction of a future crash?
No — it is a stress test using a shock size and timing you choose, to see how a specific withdrawal plan would hold up if a crash of that magnitude landed at that point. It says nothing about whether, when, or how severely markets will actually fall.
How do I make a plan more resilient to this risk?
A lower withdrawal rate, a larger cash or bond buffer for the first few retirement years, and flexibility to reduce withdrawals temporarily after a bad year all help. There is no way to eliminate the risk entirely for a portfolio that includes market-linked assets.